Description

This analysis provides a forecast of ETC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-04-06 11.173257 12.817010 14.591604 16.646442 18.956710 21.470286 24.408420
2025-04-13 8.231996 10.331708 12.780679 15.834606 19.526452 23.829957 29.209929
2025-04-20 7.176132 9.533803 12.420217 16.188611 20.950291 26.736143 34.264117
2025-04-27 6.346565 8.874633 12.106770 16.501452 22.274149 29.545916 39.338375
2025-05-04 5.563834 8.144162 11.572584 16.403851 22.968518 31.499928 43.333302
2025-05-11 4.878980 7.454016 11.000252 16.165345 23.404722 33.083775 46.872452
2025-05-18 4.394382 6.982152 10.664283 16.190031 24.153794 35.074467 51.005177
2025-05-25 4.030465 6.641846 10.471696 16.379334 25.113111 37.368429 55.633206
2025-06-01 3.663677 6.255043 10.168302 16.366125 25.754412 39.219028 59.696394
2025-06-08 3.310041 5.850168 9.796685 16.208791 26.151274 40.711537 63.285815
2025-06-15 3.065927 5.595710 9.630944 16.342999 26.975472 42.844987 67.882533
2025-06-22 2.925659 5.498745 9.702466 16.844972 28.379210 45.890469 73.952356
2025-06-29 2.660203 5.167304 9.374320 16.693424 28.767341 47.445290 77.893475
2025-07-06 2.298988 4.630539 8.659380 15.851334 27.992467 47.158324 78.981223
2025-07-13 2.181725 4.523939 8.667040 16.215719 29.193465 50.008557 85.070835
2025-07-20 2.065781 4.407789 8.646670 16.525458 30.312682 52.769156 91.124945
2025-07-27 1.900685 4.180131 8.406780 16.428971 30.729142 54.397122 95.408142
2025-08-03 1.732220 3.928357 8.101231 16.189709 30.877254 55.577390 98.992970
2025-08-10 1.613684 3.765630 7.948249 16.214578 31.482476 57.536479 103.933001
2025-08-17 1.525077 3.656225 7.887691 16.404086 32.385370 60.029687 109.857047
2025-08-24 1.420576 3.502184 7.727178 16.390877 32.914490 61.895345 114.777570
2025-08-31 1.309713 3.322648 7.501014 16.233323 33.163541 63.275074 118.903753
2025-09-07 1.237512 3.222444 7.427508 16.367716 33.959181 65.641266 124.822314